Campaigners warn of ‘stagnating Senedd’ for women’s representation

Campaigners are warning that female representation in the Welsh Assembly will flat-line this election, risking a ‘stagnating Senedd’ when it comes to diversity.

In a new report, ‘Women in the National Assembly’ , Electoral Reform Society Cymru have analysed all candidates for the upcoming election and their chances of winning, and found two key findings:

  • Women are far more likely than men to be contesting marginal seats this election. The ERS have identified eleven battleground constituencies that might change hands in 2016. Of the eleven, ten are being defended by women [2]. Men are overwhelmingly defending the 29 constituency ‘safe seats’ outlined – with women defending just eight (28% of the total)
  • The number of women in the next Assembly will flat line – the ERS project that at this election, between 22 (37% of the Senedd) and 28 (45%) women AMs will be elected, compared to 25 (42%) elected in 2011.

 

The ERS have also found that until this election, 17 constituency seats have never been won by a woman, and of them, 10 have never had a female MP. Eight constituency seats after May are likely to have still never had a female AM or MP.

The ERS believes a larger Assembly with a greater proportion of proportional list seats would create more opportunities for women to be elected, as it would increase the number of marginal and contested seats, where women are more likely to stand.

The report, which contains a foreword by the University of Liverpool’s Professor Laura McAllister, states that “During the last decade, the National Assembly for Wales and the Welsh Government were world leaders in women’s representation. From 2000-2005 over half of all cabinet ministers, and from 2005-2007 over half of all Assembly Members were women – a global first. But that early promise has stalled and as this report shows, Wales now risks falling back.”

The report outlines four possible scenarios for the result in Wales, drawing on previous elections and current information, as well as data from the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University.

It follows the launch of the ERS’ Diversity Manifesto last week, ‘A Diverse Democracy: Building a Wales for All’ [3], which recommended:

  • An increase in the number of AMs as a means of boasting the number of women elected;
  • Parties to appoint a ‘No Woman Left Behind’ Champion to ensure
  • Efforts to ensure local government re-organisation doesn’t result in a decrease in the proportion of women councillors and candidates;
  • Continued funding and support for initiatives like Women Making A Difference which help women from a range of backgrounds enter public life;
  • Parties to support the target of standing women in at least 40% of winnable council seats.

 

Professor Laura McAllister said: ““I’ve always warned that there’s a real vulnerability around Wales and the Assembly’s gender balanced status. There has always been limited goodwill about positive action amongst the political parties and a resistant culture around selecting women in key winnable seats.  Without positive and sustained interventions to promote more women, it was always likely that Wales’s status as a beacon of political equality would be at risk, as this excellent report demonstrates.”

Steve Brooks, Director of ERS Cymru, said: “This report makes clear that we are at risk of seeing a stagnating Senedd when it comes to female representation this May. Whilst some progress is being made by the parties to select women in winnable seats, women are still far more likely than men to contest marginal seats. Of our eleven battleground constituency seats, all bar one are being defended by women; whereas amongst secure constituency seats women are defending just over a quarter.

“Parties need to take action to ensure that women are selected in winnable constituency seats, particularly when sitting AMs retire. But overall, we need a larger Assembly to give space for the diversity of Wales to be represented – with more proportional list AMs, where women are more likely to be selected.”